Summary Type of Conflict Parties to the Conflict Status of the Fighting Number of Deaths Political Developments Background Arms Sources Economic Factors

Summary

2010 Violence continued in Southern Thailand but fatalities decreased to an estimated 368 in 2010, according to International Crisis Watch. By year’s end, approximately 30,000 troops remained deployed in troubled regions in Southern Thailand, and 18 provinces and Bangkok remained under a state of emergency.

2009 Violence continued in mainly the Southern regions of Thailand, killing an estimated 510 people. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s government struggled to deal with supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, while also attempting to improve the situation in the conflict-plagued Southern provinces. Border disputes with Cambodia killed four Thai troops in early April.

2008 Violent incidents in Southern Thailand decreased in number but increased in their level of co-ordination and destruction. About 600 people were killed in 2008, bringing the total number of deaths to at least 3,500. A state of emergency continued for the region, providing the military with absolute control. Both the military and insurgents continued to be accused of human-rights abuses. The violence heightened after the newly formed coalition government was charged with electoral fraud. After months of protests by the pro-monarchy group People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in Bangkok , the People Power Party (PPP) was dissolved and a new coalition government was formed under the Democrat Party and led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

2007 Attacks by the Southern insurgency groups increased in intensity, brutality and co-ordination, leading to speculation that insurgent groups were increasingly co-operating with each other. In June violence peaked when an average of five people were killed per day, making the conflict the most lethal in Southeast Asia. The first democratic election since the 2006 coup was held in December and the transfer of power from the interim-government to the newly elected one was expected in early January. The People Power Party (PPP), considered a reincarnation of Thaksin’s former Thai Rak Thai Party won. The PPP was expected to take a militaristic approach to the insurgency.

2006 Daily incidents of violence and an increase in the number of co-ordinated attacks by Southern insurgency groups resulted in the deaths of between 700 and 1,300 people. A new government led by interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont—formed after a bloodless military coup in September—showed a greater openness to working with insurgency groups and to extend greater autonomy to the region. But the government did not know who was behind the violence and the security situation in the South continued to deteriorate after the coup.

2005 The number of people killed since the beginning of renewed hostilities in 2004 surpassed 1,000. Fighting escalated as separatist rebels and Thailand’s security forces increased operations in the disputed Southern provinces.

Type of Conflict

State formation

Parties to the Conflict

1. Government of Thailand: led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the Democrat Party, who came to power in 2008. In 2006, a bloodless military coup led by General Sonthi Boonyartgil forced then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Thai Rak Thai party from power, and the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR) led retired General Surayud Chulanont took control. In 2007, elections were held and the People’s Power Party (PPP), largely considered a reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai party, won enough seats to form a coalition government. In 2008, allegations of electoral fraud let to the dissolution of the government, leaving the opposition Democratic Party to take power in a coalition with other smaller parties.

Versus

2. Southern Militant Insurgency Groups: The violent unrest in the South has been carried out by a number of different insurgency groups. No particular group, however, has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In 2007, the attacks targeting both civilians and military personnel became more co-ordinated and sophisticated, leading to an increase in their number and intensity. The insurgency, which in the past was characteristically fragmented, is seen to be more unified and sharing the common goal of gaining independence for Muslim-dominated areas. Groups that have been implicated in the unrest include:

a) Bersutu: An umbrella organization of various Southern terrorist groups, founded in 1989. It counts Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) and Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu Pattani Coordinate (BRN-C) among its members. Bersatu was formed with the intention of unifying all splinter militant insurgent groups within Thailand. The core insurgent leaders, including those from PULO, Mai (New PULO), the original PULO, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu Pattani (BRN), the Barisan National Pember-Basan Pattani (BNPP) and the Mujahadeen Pattani, held a joint meeting called "the gathering of the fighters for Pattani." The meeting agreed to set up the Payong Organization to unify all the movements and to carry out the struggle in the same direction in order to avoid creating confusion in accepting financial donations from foreign countries. The groups have employed the tactic of deploying small armed bands to carry out guerrilla activities and set up no permanent bases on Thai soil. The organization changed its name to Bersutu (The United Front for the Independence of Pattani) in 1991. Until recently, the various groups within the organization were not believed to share common goals, however, the increase in more co-ordinated attacks is leading many to speculate that the insurgent groups have become more unified.

b) National Revolutionary Front-Coordinate (BRN-C): The largest and best organized of the rebel groups, the BRN-C is the last remaining armed faction of the BRN, which was first active in the 1960s. The BRN-C is fighting for an independent Pattani state. The BRN-C has actively been recruiting from religious schools. The BRN-C also includes:

a. Pemuda: Separatist youth faction of the BRN-C.
b. Runda Kumpulan Kecil (RKK): comprised of 500 members of the BRN-C who received training in Indonesia.

c) Gerakan Mujahedeen Islami Pattani (GMIP): The GMIP was established by Afghani veterans in 1995 and fights for an independent Islamic state. It has suspected connections to its Malaysian counterpart called Kumpulan Mujahedeen Malay.

d) Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO): Founded in 1968 by Kabir Abdul Rahman, who wanted to establish an independent Muslim state through armed struggle. Largely defunct in the mid-1990s. In 2010 returned to the forefront. Many former members of the PULO continue to be involved in the insurgency, though it is unclear whether or not they are fighting under the banner of the PULO.

e) Mai New PULO: An offshoot of the former Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO), also fighting for an independent state.

f) Jemaah Salafi: founded in the late 1990s by Muahmmad Haji Jaeming, who trained in Afghanistan. Involvement in the violence is probably minimal, as the leader of this group has been under scrutiny by Thai officials.

Versus

Political Opposition Groups

3. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD): often referred to as the Red Shirts, is the main opposition to the coalition government of Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. Formed in 2006 in opposition to the military coup that ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of the People’s Power Party (PPP), the UDD remains a solid force against Abhisit’s coalition government today. The UDD is often considered a Pro-Thaksin party. Its members are frequently imprisoned under lese majeste laws that state individuals violating the dignity of the reigning sovereign are criminally liable. UDD protests escalated into violence in May 2010 in an effort to draw attention to its argument that the current Thai government assumed power illegitimately and is abusing its power by unfairly appointing bureaucracy. To assuage these concerns, the UDD wants the current government dissolved and a general re-election held immediately.

Status of Fighting

2010 Violence continued in the South this year but changed from random attacks to targeted protests and political rallies. In May, two months of relatively civil political protests by opposition Red Shirts demanding immediate elections turned violent in Bangkok, killing 90 civilians and injuring 1,900. In response, the government extended the state of emergency in most regions.

2009 Levels of violence similar to 2008, continued this year, with most of the fighting taking place in the South. People connected to the Thai state, including police, soldiers, government officials and teachers—whether Muslim or Buddhist—were frequent targets. Two human-rights activists were killed in separate incidents early in the year. Four Thai paramilitary rangers were killed and decapitated in two separate incidents. In June, several teachers and Buddhist monks were killed. On June 8, gunmen attacked the Al Furqon Mosque in Narathiwat, killing 10 to 12 people and injuring several more. The attack is believed to have been committed by paramilitary troops. In August, 16 civilians were killed in one week. In early April, a standoff between Thai and Cambodian killed four Thai troops. And two civilians were killed during political riots staged by pro-Thaksin supporters.

2008 Local media sources reported a 47-per-cent decline in the number of violent incidents, from 1,992 in 2007 to 1,056 in 2008. But the incidents, including bombings and shootings—related to both the insurgency in the South and the government protests in the capital—were more deadly. In January, at least 12 soldiers were killed in insurgent ambushes. On April 28, 120 alleged militants were killed in Southern Thailand. In October, protests in the South killed 80, and conflicts between police and protesters in Bangkok killed two and injured 443. In November, two bombing attacks wounded more than 70 people and killed one. Also in November, a bombing in Bangkok killed one and injured 20. Human- and civil-rights abuses by insurgents and government security forces continued. Meanwhile, two people were killed over a border dispute with Cambodia, which began in July.

2007 The year began with co-ordinated bombings—blamed on politicians and not linked to insurgents— targeting tourist areas during New Year’s Eve celebrations in Bangkok. Insurgent violence was contained within the three predominantly Malay-Muslim provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, and Pattani. Violence peaked in June, when an average of five people a day were killed. Insurgents targeted civilians of all faiths, specifically people who were suspected of co-operating with the government, those working in government offices and schools and those working in critical economic sectors. In response to the increase in violence, Buddhist villagers within the conflict areas began to arm themselves. In late June, the military launched Operation Southern Protection, an aggressive counterinsurgency campaign, which significantly decreased fatalities. At year’s end, upwards of 20,000 government troops remained in the troubled provinces. But human-rights abuses and heavy-handed tactics were undermining their support among the civilian population.

2006 Attacks by various insurgency groups in the disputed Southern provinces continued to rise, resulting in the highest annual death toll since violence re-erupted in 2004. The violence included a number of co-ordinated attacks—including bombings, arson, and shootings—by insurgency groups. Early in the year, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s government reported improved security relations with the Malay-Muslim population. But reports surfaced of arbitrary arrests and allegations that security forces had participated in extrajudicial killings. After the September coup, there was a surge in attacks, despite efforts by the new government to engage in peace talks. No groups have yet claimed responsibility for the violence, and the fragmented nature of the insurgency continued to be a challenge.

2005 Fighting continued to escalate. Rebels carried out daily shooting and bombing attacks on both military and civilian targets. On several occasions, rebels launched large-scale attacks against government forces. The government responded early in the year with conventional warfare tactics after moving 40,000 troops to the region, but later switched to mainly counterinsurgency operations. The fighting was limited to the disputed Southern provinces of Pattani, Yala and Songkhla.

Number of Deaths

Total: Various sources estimate between 4,100 and 4,400 people have been killed since 2004.

2010 According to International Crisis Watch and the Bangkok Post, approximately 368 civilians died from continued unrest in the South in the first 10 months of 2010. In addition, an estimated 90 civilians were killed and 1,900 injured in clashes between the government and anti-government protesters during the May riots in Bangkok.

2009 According to the U.S. State Department Human Rights Report, there were 510 conflict-related deaths reported this year, including 389 civilians, 78 government officials and 43 insurgents.

2008 An estimated 600 people were killed this year. According to local media sources, 546 deaths were “registered,” including 74 state officials, 422 civilians and 50 suspected militants. Another, 1,075 were reported injured.

2007 An estimated 800 to more than 1,300 people were killed this year.

2006 An estimated 700 to 1,300 people were killed this year.

2005 More than 500 people were killed this year.

Political Developments

2010 Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gave a lukewarm reception to peace talks between the government and insurgency groups in Southern Thailand. Rebels from the Malay Muslim majority in Southern Thailand continued to stir up violence. Abhisit  and his Democrat Party faced unrelenting political protests launched by opposition Red Shirts, culminating in riots in May, when 90 civilians were reportedly killed and 1,900 injured. Pro-Thaksin Red Shirts were demanding Parliament be dissolved and an immediate election held. The government’s main strategy in dealing with Red Shirt and Malay aggression was to place most of Thailand under a state of emergency. On July 6, the state of emergency was lifted from five relatively stable provinces; 18 provinces and Bangkok remained under a state of emergency by year’s end.

2009 Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s government struggled to deal with supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, while also attempting to improve the situation in the conflict-plagued Southern provinces. On March 26, thousands of Thaksin supporters began a sit-in outside Government House, demanding the resignation of the King’s advisors and the dissolution of Parliament. This was followed by street protests in Pattaya on April 11, which led to the cancellation of the ASEAN Summit. Accompanying demonstrations in Bangkok turned violent, killing two and injuring 120. The Prime Minister declared a state of emergency in Pattaya on April 11 and in Bangkok on April 12. Both were lifted by April 24. The government approved a plan for improving the justice system in the South in March. Also in March, Abhisit  sent an additional 4,000 soldiers to the South to help “improve relations with local people.” In June, Songkhla Provincial Court ruled that no officers would be charged in the deaths of 78 ethnic Malay Muslim detainees in TakBai in 2004, leading to further strained relations between the separatists and the government. The government unveiled a $1-billion (U.S.) stimulus plan as part of its campaign conditions in the South.

2008 On Jan. 19, the government announced a new six-party coalition, led by the People’s Power Party (PPP) with Samak Sundaravej as Prime Minister. The previous military council disbanded, promising no more coups. The United States responded to the apparent stability with renewed financial and military aid in February. Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in exile after being charged with abuse of power, was also allowed to return to Thailand and was released on bail. In April three of the coalition parties, including the PPP, faced allegations of vote-buying and electoral fraud. In July, bilateral talks with Cambodia failed to resolve a border standoff, leading to two deaths in October. Conflict increased in the South, and the government approved mobilization of some 2,500 additional paramilitary troops in August. At the same time, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) occupied the Government House in protest of the alleged electoral fraud and forced Samak out of office. He was replaced by PPP candidate Somchai Wongsawat in September. Protests intensified in November, and a state of emergency was declared in Bangkok airports. On Dec. 2, a court ruling dissolved the PPP after the fraud charges, bringing an end to protests. Several smaller parties joined the opposition Democrat Party to form a new government, with Abhisit Vejjajiva elected Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Thaksin fled to the UK and was found guilty of abuse of power in absentia.

2007 At the start of the year, there were concerns the government would use the New Year’s Eve bombings—which the government blamed on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s supporters—as an excuse to hold onto power. But a new constitution was approved by in a referendum in August. On Dec. 23, the first parliamentary elections since the coup in 2006 were held, with the transfer of power to the People Power Party (PPP) expected to occur in January 2008. The PPP is seen by many to be the reincarnation of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party. Thaksin’s party had an aggressive military position regarding the insurgents and many predict this position will be again be introduced by the PPP. Some informal meetings occurred between Thai government officials and insurgent representatives in Geneva.

2006 Growing opposition to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on grounds of corruption directed the country’s political attention away from the conflict early in the year. Thaksin’s party won a snap election in April, but nearly 40 per cent of voters spoiled their ballots in protest, and Thaksin announced his resignation shortly after. On Sept. 19, Thaksin’s government was overthrown in a bloodless military coup led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Army. The new government, led by retired General Surayud Chulanont (who was elected as interim prime minister a month following the coup)has taken a softer, more open approach to the conflict, agreeing to peace talks with the insurgents, and looking into ways to extend greater autonomy to the disputed provinces. However, optimism that the new government’s openness to work with the insurgents would lead to a de-escalation in violence was tempered by a surge in attacks in October, highlighting the difficulty the government faces in working with a highly fragmented collection of insurgency groups who have yet to take specific responsibility for the violence.

2005 The Thai Rak Thai party won a majority of parliamentary seats in February elections, re-electing party leader Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. In March, the government created the National Reconciliation Commission to explore ways to end the conflict. The Thailand government declared a state of emergency in the disputed provinces in July and extended it for the remainder of the year.

Background

The conflict in Southern Thailand has roots in Thailand’s 1902 annexation of the Malay Kingdom of Pattani, which comprises the Southern provinces of Patani, Yala and Songkhla.

The people of this territory have a long history of independence, and are ethnically and culturally distinct from the majority of Thais. The large majority of people in the three Southern provinces are ethnic Malay, who speak Yawi (a Malay dialect) and are predominantly Muslim (80 per cent), making the region distinct from the majority Buddhist, Thai-speaking country.

Their grievances stem from a number of related historical and contemporary developments.
•    First, a majority of the population has never accepted the loss of independence.
•    Second, repeated attempts by various Thai governments to assimilate the local population, by repressing the local culture, language and religion in favour of the majority Thai culture, as well as widespread and often official discrimination against ethnic Malays has fuelled resentment to Thai rule.
•    Third, most of the local population believes the region has historically been neglected by successive Thai governments, leading to underdevelopment and higher levels of poverty than the rest of Thailand.

In the 1960s, various rebel groups demanding independence emerged, instigating a period of major violence and unrest in the South that lasted until the early 1990s. A series of political and economic reforms aimed at addressing the historical grievance of the Malay population, and a broad amnesty for the rebels all but ended the insurgency.

Resentment towards Thai rule rose again in the late 1990s after the rollback of key reforms made in the 1990s, grave human-rights abuses committed by Thai authorities against the local population during heavy-handed security operations and worsening economic conditions after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. While the 1997 constitution promised more local autonomy for the Southern states, these policies were reversed by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra when he came to power in 2001.

By the end of 2001, four major rebel groups had emerged (or re-emerged), and a dramatic escalation of violence in 2004 led to continued violent attacks and clashes. Although their demands were varied, all the major rebel groups demanded independence from Thailand.


Economic Factors

The Southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Songkhla, where the vast majority of ethnic Malays live, have historically been among the poorest and most underdeveloped in Thailand. The Asian financial crisis of 1997 led to a further deterioration of economic conditions. Most of the local population believes successive Thai governments have ignored the region’s development in favour of the rest of Thailand, where ethnic Thais are the majority.

NGO Deep South Watch reports that the conflict has caused economic losses surpassing $3.1-billion (U.S.) since 2004 and estimates suggest the government will need to spend some $8.6-billion (U.S.) fighting the conflict in the next decade.

Arms Sources

Thailand has received conventional arms from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Canada, China, Sweden, Israel, Russia, Colombia, New Zealand, Singapore and the Czech Republic.

In 2008, the Thai government negotiated programs to receive combat aircraft and a new air-defense system from Sweden.

In 2010, Thailand increased its military spending by 19 per cent, one of the largest global increases in arms spending, according to SIPRI Yearbook 2010.

The rebels obtain arms by stealing them from Thai security forces, mainly by raiding local police stations. They are also alleged to receive arms and other support through transnational Islamist networks.

map: CIA Factbook