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The Ploughshares Monitor
Summer 2002, volume 23, no. 2
Bush, Putin sign arms reduction treaty
In a summit that was said to "end a long chapter
of confrontation," Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and
George W. Bush of the United States met in Moscow on May 24, 2002,
where they signed the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions.
Hailed as the beginning of a new relationship between the former
Cold War foes, the Treaty calls for each state to reduce its deployed
strategic nuclear weapons to approximately one third of the current
level.
On December 13, 2001 the US announced its intention
to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to pursue
development of a limited ballistic missile defence program. Russian
opposition to this action was addressed with US offers of weapons
reductions. The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty is the product
of several meetings between the two states over the past year
beginning with Bushs offer in Crawford, Texas of unilateral
reductions.
Russia insisted that any reductions be codified with
a formal treaty, pushing for verification measures and irreversibility.
The US agreed to work jointly with Russia to make the reductions
legal and permanent.
The resulting three-page agreement consists of five
articles outlining a plan for the reduction of deployed strategic
nuclear weapons. Specifically, the countries agree to reduce their
arsenals to between 1,700-2,200 weapons each, by December 31, 2012.
The Treaty does not outline or limit the final composition of each
states arsenal, so long as the aggregate number of weapons
does not exceed the total number prescribed.
Verification of the proposed reductions is also undefined.
American press material states: "STARTs [Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty] comprehensive verification regime will provide
the foundation for transparency and predictability regarding implementation
of the new bilateral Treaty." But, although the treaty calls
for maintenance of the START process, it does not explicitly state
that the detailed reduction strategy of the START treaties will
be the basis for verification of these new reductions. It does state
that implementation will be monitored with bi-annual meetings of
a Bilateral Implementation Commission.
Nor does the Treaty insist upon the irreversibility
of the cuts. The text states: "Each Party shall reduce and
limit strategic nuclear warheads," but there is no mention
of destroying retired weapons. The US has already indicated that
it plans to maintain the majority of the cut warheads in storage
as a hedge force, meaning, in effect, that the new treaty is more
a de-alerting measure than a disarmament measure. The minimalist
Treaty allows for flexible interpretation of the reduction plan,
without affecting other elements of the nuclear programs, including
missile defence, tactical nuclear weapons arsenals, testing, and
stockpile management.
Before the Treaty enters into force, it requires ratification
by the US Senate and both the State Duma and Federal Assembly of
Russia. Its term will end on December 31, 2012, but either country
can withdraw from the agreement before that date with three months
written notice of its intentions.
This instrument takes significant steps to reduce
the number of nuclear weapons deployed by Russia and the US, many
of which are on high-alert at launch-on-warning status. However,
its limited scope hardly fulfills President Bushs assertion
that the Treaty "liquidates the Cold War legacy of nuclear
hostility between our countries." With up to 2,200 deployed
strategic nuclear weapons and thousands in storage, in addition
to thousands of tactical nuclear weapons, the arsenals of Russia
and the US will still be formidable in 2012.
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